Wiki must be wrong

Actually, I could get three Huge Lucky Gathers and lots of Lucky gathers shearing an Alpaca 100 times with a friend, which friend has sheared 100 times too and got lots of luckies and one Huge.

I had 359 luck, so my guess is that the chance of obtain a Lucky Gather is luck / 500 and for Huge Lucky Gather is luck / 2000, or what is the same, Luck * 0,0005.

I will provide a video tomorrow if I remember it.

Using the probability that wiki says:

359 / 50000 = 0,00718 * 33,3 (100 / 3 aprox) = 0,239094 0,2% chances of get a Huge Lucky Gather out of 33~34 tries.

I don't have that luck.

Also, I could get two Huge Lucky finish out of 100 shearings on the two previous days.

Just because something has an x% chance of happening, doesn't mean it will always happen exactly x% of times. You could literally get 100 huge lucky gathers in a row, or get 0 of them after 9999999...(you get the idea) attempts. You can thank the RNG for that.

Gambler's Fallacy lol...

You also have your math wrong for calculating 33 attempts at a huge lucky gather. The probability of getting at least one huge lucky gather in 33 successful gathers with 359 luck would be:

1 - ((1 - (359 / 50000))^33)
1 - ((1 - 0.00718)^33)
1 - (0.99282^33)
1 - 0.788364519205437
0.21163548079456

Approximately 21.2%. Using the same formula, 100 successful gathers will give you approximately a 51.4% chance at receiving at least one huge lucky gather.

I don't know how to calculate ^ things, the maths on my school were as bad as the english they wanted to teach me, using a book from primary class on secondary... How do you calculate with ^ ?

x^y is just x multiplied by itself y times. So 2^3 would be 2x2x2.

Oh, it's easy then, thanks for the explanation^^

Just for learn better maths, how did you get the 21.2% from 0.21163548079456?

o- o Blargel converted 0.21163548079456 into a percentage.

Move the decimal two spaces to the right or multiply by 100.

Oh ok, thanks a lot, really... Sorry for seem a jerk, as I've said, unfortunately school taught me poor maths. Now I've learned more things.

I also want to mention there is a cap somewhere, but no one knows where it caps due to well...having a large amount of luck is quite difficult, but nowadays a days I'm sure someone can reach well over 1000 Luck with enchants and food buffs and can retest if they want to.