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Water cannon Range modifier
Margin of error is only valid in statistics.
In concrete mathematics any error indicates the equation is flawed.
Your equation is flawed because: It does not use the additional damage stat, which is indeed a real stat (it is observed as existing due to the lower than predicted critical values and explains them fully)
This will become increasingly apparent to you as you observe that r1 Water Mastery has the effect of causing
(.15+.1)/.15 = 111.6666 + 136 = 247, 451 crit
Whereas you'd suggest it causes:
1.55 * 136 = 210, 527 crit.
This is not statistics, any error is not acceptable.