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# User:Mystickskye

Hi all, I like Mabinogi. 'Nuff said. Don't write on this page, that's what the talk page is for.

Small side note, I hate the new monster template. Go support Ladywinter's new designs, they're super nifty!

I have a page of math and crap on damage calcs and the like at here[1]

## Def/Prot stuff

On my mission to calculate and verify the defense and protection of every single monster in Mabinogi. http://wiki.mabinogiworld.com/index.php?title=User:Mystickskye/defprot I have a long way to go.

## Dual Wielding & Enchants - Redux

Some people still don't get the picture so I've taken it upon myself to write another guide of sorts. This time, I have pictures for the cavemen type people who can't get by with just words.

*Small note, the crit for some reason wavers between terminating in .1% and .2%, likely due to rounding in the formulas so for the purposes of this example, .1% and .2% are considered as the same)*

**So there you have it!** "Weapon stat-specific" enchants apply solely to the weapon it's on unless it's on a non-weapon equip in which case it applies to "base damage". Stat-based enchants simply all go to your stats and increase your base damage so it doesn't matter where they are. Actual output damage is determined for each individual hit of a weapon as [base damage + weapon damage]. For dual wielding each hit of a weapon is [Base Damage + Weapon in Question] and for single hit skills when dual wielding it's [Base Damage + Weapon 1 Damage + Weapon 2 Damage.

As a side note, it tallies both min and max damage in this manner so you can get curious examples in dual wielding Min>Max weapons (for such weapons, your damage becomes Max~Max provided the Max/Min rate of your own base damage doesn't overcome the gap) which is less where individual hit damage has the Max>Min but then using a single hit skill it goes back to Min>Max meaning you'll always get the same gross output. For more on this particular topic, read here. Ignore the dude arguing with me, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

## Probability

Because too many people don't seem to understand how probability works, I'm making a small section here.

**If you have a 10% chance at something, it does not mean you'll get 1 succesfully out of every 10 attempts**. Chances are that you'll be close **but it's not a given**. A "success chance" given to you applies for a single attempt, that chance doesn't change over attempts. Hence you could be incredibly unlucky at a task with a 1 out of 4 failure chance and failure 4 times in a row. You're not automatically going to get a success after that, it's still 1 out of 4.

I'll demonstrate with a simple example. Take a coin toss, it lands either head or tails meaning there's a 50% chance of either outcome. So then, via a single toss you can get either Heads or Tails. Not much more than that. Over two tosses though? Well this is where I bring up probability trees. The result for any toss can be either Heads or Tails, I'm fairly sure we can all agree on this. So say the first toss lands heads, dandy. The second toss can also go either Heads or Tails too so overall, we can get Heads-Heads or Heads-Tails. What does this mean? It means that over a sample size of two tosses, there can be four different probabilities, new probabilities branching off from the previous results as such:

**1 Toss**- Heads 50%
- Tails 50%
**2 Tosses**- Heads-Heads 25%
- Heads-Tails 25%
- Tails-Heads 25%
- Tails-Tails 25%

Because the order isn't relevant here, we can count the second and third results as being identical so there are three distinct outcomes for flipping a coin twice. Getting Heads twice has a 25% outcome, getting Tails twice has a 25% outcome and getting a mix has a 50% outcome.

"But isn't this just demonstrating the 50% rule?" Well yes, because the above was a rather crappy example. So let's go a bit further on it. What if a coin was flipped four times? The possible results are:

- HHHH
- HHHT
- HHTH
- HTHH
- THHH
- HHTT
- HTHT
- HTTH
- THHT
- TTHH
- THHT
- TTTH
- TTHT
- THTT
- HTTT
- TTTT

Each result has a 6.25% chance of occuring. This means that over four coin tosses, you have a 12.5% chance of getting the same face four times in a row (12.5% is still a reasonable occurance chance). ie, **not** two Heads and two Tails. In fact, the chance of getting two Heads and two Tails out of four tosses is actually only 37.5%. Interestingly enough, the chance of getting three of one face and one of the other sits squarely at 50%. 50+27.5+12.5=100 so it all adds up.

Let's take a step further than this. Going back to my original example pulled out of thin air of "1 out of 10", in other words, a 10% chance. It's still relatively simple though with two outcomes, success or fail. This simply differs in the chance for each. Now I'm not going to list out all the different probabilities because for an example like this there's 1,024 different probabilities and writing all those out would be stupid. So you're gonna just have to accept what I say on this one.

With a 10% "success rate" - let's imagine that some monster has a 10% drop chance on something you want; then these are the kinds of numbers you get out over 10 attempts:

- -
**Chance of not getting the drop at all = 34.9%** - -Chance you'd get
**at least one**drop = 65.1% - -Chance of getting
**exactly one**drop = 38.7% - -Therefore, chance of getting more than one drop = 26.4%

Notice how close the chances of getting exactly one and none at all are (also note how it simply doesn't point to you most likely getting 1 out of 10). As an aside, the chance of getting the drop 10 times in a row is 0.000,000,01%. That is to say, one in ten billion.

So what does this all mean for the poor confused average Joe? For the most part, it means that you shut up and take it like a man when the chance "doesn't seem to work out" for you. However, lets look back at the example just prior. In particular, when portrayed in a manner that is important to us. The chance of not getting the drop is 34.9%, the chance of getting exactly one drop is 38.7% and the chance of getting more than one is 26.4%. All relatively close numbers, especially for getting none and getting one. The highest chance? Belongs to getting exactly 1 over 10 results. So yes, a 1 in 10 chance will lean towards exactly that. What I can't stress enough though is that it's not a given. The example very clearly proves this. **So what does this all really mean?** It means that we have chance/probability for a reason. **It's not a given**. If the RNG likes you and you get more than you "expect" then be thankful. If you get less, you simply weren't lucky. Either way, don't complain that the rate is wrong. Chances are, you're not really in any position to tell.--Mystickskye 16:17, 1 September 2009 (UTC)

## Reference for myself

A bunch of links with hastily typed thoughts for self-reference.

Dyes: A list of what may possibly be all known dyes to date

Succu Hat: Despite the writing in English, the Korean names it specifically as a Red Succubus Hat. Can be worn by Females **and** Males, restricted to Humans and Elves, no other restrictions whatsoever (trading, enchant, repair) unlike the event Succubus Wear (which IIRC was simpled called "Succubus Hat" and such) which couldn't be repaired and ran out of dura once the event was over. May be a special event prize though, will have to read the Korean when I can be bothered.

JP G8S1 Update: Possible dye amps through potion making (whatever happened to that?), Red Dragon implemented along with Zardine, hot air balloons, wyverns, Giants get new hair, new items added (Beholders Sword, Lava Cat Robe)

GP G8S2 Update: Hardmode Alby, Ciar, Rundal added (Lion Hunter enchant anyone?), Jewel Upgrades, new Wands, **Two handed weapons rebalanced for Smash**, TW design contest items made available for sale

KR G8S3 Update: Hotspring monkey feeding, Sulfur Golems can be mined when defeated (O_o), Mana Shield, **Fossil collection book from Belita** (Dustin Silver Knight Sword of Destruction), Tir revamp, new giant eyes, Sulfur golems pwn harder

KR G8S4 Update: **Protect dragon eggs missions (Ancient enchant plox)**, skill cap lift.

**We have a lot of G8 stuff already, who's up for another "batch" release of The Drake of Iria?**

CN M.A.B.I.N.O.G.I. Event: They needed to collect 10 letters instead of 8, nice prizes.

TW Price Party PQ Event: The way it's written seems to suggest it was slightly different from ours...

TW Dungeon Roulette Event: W>This event.

JP Summer 2008: We got the same summer wear, similar fan was given out for watermelon event... wonder if we'll get the Yukata.

Hardmode Escort Event: Sounds a bit dubious, how exactly do you determine who contributes the most? I also don't see the Nexon NA GMs being able to do this.

KR New Sealstone Requirements: Lame requirements are lame.

KR Alchemy Details (kinda): Alchemy not connected to users stats? I like how bow restrictions for melee skills are placed on cylinders.

CN Pocky Event: S>My soul for this event. It's doubtful we'll get this here though as all other "product placement" type things were taken out (My Holiday Mini Bear wants his Cola). Chocolate statue making similar to Mimic statue making? We still don't really know how that even works. I **do** know that certain monsters are tagged with "not_swallow" (Succubus is, Golem isn't). So confusing.

KR Anniversary/Time Capsule Event: Shield of Black Sheep sounds amusing. Maybe we'll just get this as a random event? Nexon NA seems to be going through event diarrhea so...

JP Fishing Contest, Gacha Update: To Nexon NA, this is how you do a Fishing Contest, stop sandbagging plox. Also, gacha update? Have the NA Gacha ever been updated? Will they ever get updated?

CN Dragon Boat Racing/Monster Hunt: Both sound fairly keen though I still have nightmares of KSing asshats from the M.A.B.I.N.O.G.I. event... wait, am I allowed to swear on here?

KR G8ES: Fairy fruitcake NPC that IIRC is a harder to find price, he sells Ancient Powder or something which has the best enchant success rate I think. Giant Shields added, Windbreaker and Taunt added. W>that female giant hair. Final Shot added. Final Shot is kinda lame from memory.

CN Random events: Noting the Cotton Candy Sheep event, Bunny Costumes? I've heard that JP once gave out Bunny Ears and that KR had this event give out Toy Hammers like we got. Based off this, I'm assuming we'll get KR's version of events.

CN Capture the Flag: This could either turn out out really well or horribly.

TW Courcle Updates: Only reason I'm noting this is because they had to pretty much bribe people to play a Gameguard enforced Mabi. It fills me with lulz.

JP "Offline Event": A Mabinogi party in the more tangible life, neat O_o

Shaved Ice Hat: Shaved ice hat as a reward for some christmas event it looks like.

Crystal Rudolph: Colour selectable! Neat!

http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=4993054 losingtosuccubus http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=big&illust_id=13479749 again? http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=15485925 rua&succubus http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=8696573 succubus&siren http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=15686314 naospringclothes http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=15435936 mabivacation http://www.pixiv.net/member_illust.php?mode=medium&illust_id=15218492 naodevcatphones

**RAMBLERAMBLERAMBLERABMLE****dies**