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New drop.
Every enemy who has ever dropped me a weapon has dropped it with +1 +2 +3 or +4 durability with the stats listed on the page. I have over 1,200 samples from diverse areas. The stats on drop are completely random. You have as much chance to get +1 as you do to get +2 +3 or +4. If it contradicts your experience then you have not gathering tens or hundreds of a single weapon drop from a single source. All I need to do to disprove the theory that it is monster based is get 1 of every grade from said monster. I have done this with enough mobs to say that it is random.