Probability of Getting a Commerce Reforge?

So it's too pricey to have multiple commerce reforge tools to find the probability of getting a commerce reforge. But would there happen to be numbers that suggest that when using a commerce tool the likelihood of getting the commerce reforge rather than any other reforge is higher? Because with 63 occurrences of the word "Clothing" on the Reforging page, this would suggest (at most) a 1.6% chance of getting the desired reforge. It's rather disconcerting considering that even on rank 1 reforged clothing, one could end up with a level 1 commerce reforge and that prices are at 1M ea. on Tarlach server.

Theoretically speaking, yes it would be a 1.6% chance. But considering it is the only tool that can give the reforge, the chances are a bit a higher than 1.6%. I don't know how much the tool is on other servers, but alexina's hitting 1.5m on those :s

1.6%?? Is it really that low? I mean, I got one on my first try... And with the many other commerce reforges I've seen around... it seems a lot higher than 1.6% (yes, I'm aware that % is theoretical).

Well maybe "a bit higher" was the wrong choice of words...But yeah it's like, 25~40? maybe. I've asked a few and about 5/13 seems to have gotten the reforge.

So.. I've used at least.. 10 commerce reforging tools now... Every time, I've gotten a commerce speed reforge...

o-o either super lucky...or Nexon did something to it.

Me? Super lucky? You so funneh, Mikaya-chan. ;-;

You had 10 tools?. . . Were they on separate items or all the same?

Same.

That's...strange. That would mean it would change other reforges and not the speed reforge. Odd.

The speed reforge does change levels o-o.

But I bet it never changed did it? The other 1 or two lines did but not the speed.

Ehh, by change, I mean like change to another reforge, not level. Levels alway changes

What I think she means is, if the middle line got the commerce reforge, the middle line was always a commerce reforge? Like, once you get it, 100% chance to get another commerce reforge?

Ehh I mean like, one line will always be a Commerce forge and the other(s) is craps.

Well... yeah, if I got the reforge on every attempt. :C

Well, it does jump around to different lines. I.e., the first attempt, the reforge appears on the 1st line. The 2nd attempt, the reforge appears on the 2nd line, etcetcetc.