%Chance

That's nowhere near how "random" works in programming.

With that side, of course there is a probability, however we will never be able to find the true probability without access to the server, which of course, we do not have. The best we can do is an estimate, which requires a lot of research that has not been done yet.

You could volunteer and do said research and find said estimated probability. Then you could post your research on the wiki so those who wonder the same question can have an answer.