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%Chance
What is the %Chance of getting a gem while preforming metallurgy? And does anything alter this chance?
Even if there were a success rate, I don't think anything would affect it.
There should be some type of probability, even if nothing affects it. Random to any computer is like humans rolling a dice If the probability is not constant, than there would be a constant probability that randomly decides the probability. Do to the fact that it is a computer program, the programmer(s) would have to put the probability in there somewhere. By random it likely means like rolling a dice, or flipping a coin.
That's nowhere near how "random" works in programming.
With that side, of course there is a probability, however we will never be able to find the true probability without access to the server, which of course, we do not have. The best we can do is an estimate, which requires a lot of research that has not been done yet.
You could volunteer and do said research and find said estimated probability. Then you could post your research on the wiki so those who wonder the same question can have an answer.