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Drop Statistics
Fragment of a discussion from Talk:Hot Air Balloon Event (2011)
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By the looks of this event I can guess the max % chance to attain items maybe...
1 Gift =
90+% Mini Hot Air Balloon
1~2% Children's Day Robe
0.5~1% White Tiger Robe
It seems even worse for rarer items, since they are technically not even 1 percent.