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Talk:Honeycomb

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Item rates

So, I opened 100 honeycombs, I got 35 honey, 37 dead bees, 17 pollen, 11 royal jelly. Not sure how helpful this would be, so just putting it out here. xD Acknowitall 21:13, 19 August 2010 (UTC)

So the success rates are approx. 35% Fresh Honey, 35% Dead Bee, 15% Pollen, 15% Royal Jelly ~kotarou3 TALKCONTRIBS 11:31, 12 September 2010 (UTC)
I just got 5 Honey, 2 Royal Jelly, 2 Pollen and 1 Dead Bee from 10 combs. That makes it 40 honey, 38 bees, 19 pollen and 13 royal. I think the chances are more of 35% Honey and Bee, 20% Pollen and 10% Royal ~kotarou3 TALKCONTRIBS 11:43, 12 September 2010 (UTC)
The results still aren't definitive, its looking like 35~40% Honey, 34~38% dead bee, 13~19% polen and 10~13% royal jelly. 200 more results should narrow it down. Tellos 14:12, 12 September 2010 (UTC)
With zeph's set of 200 below it comes out to a breakdown of 112, 86, 72, 40, for a total of 310.
Meaning Honey 36%, Bee 28%, Pollen 23%, Royal 13%. More testing needed? -- ladywinter ~{talk | contribs}~ 18:09, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
So far, as I'm doing this experiment, Royal Jelly and Pollen seem to be relatively constant. Dead Bees and Honey, on the other hand, seem to be fluctuating a lot. Will be testing more~ --ZephyreTALK 18:35, 13 September 2010 (UTC)

Testing (Please don't touch this data)

Since my inventory doesn't allow it, I'm conducting a super number crunching experiment in 10 parts. --ZephyreTALK 18:33, 13 September 2010 (UTC)

Test 1
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
38 27 24 11 100
Test 2
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
34 21 29 16 100
Test 3
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
27 40 21 12 100
Test 4
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
33 27 24 16 100
Test 5
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
39 25 19 17 100
Test 6
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Total
42 25 19 14 100
Okay, so I'm getting really bored smacking a tree a couple thousand times, so I'm going to stop now (lol). But taking the data I gathered, and Acknowitall's data, we come to the conclusion of:
Cumulative Tests
Fresh Honey Dead Bee Pollen Royal Jelly Grand Total
248 202 153 97 700
35.4% 28.9% 21.9% 13.8%
35% 30% 20% 15%
The last set of percentages is the "Theoretical Percentage". If 300 more honeycombs were ripped in half to reveal their insides, the resulting numbers would probably look something like that. --ZephyreTALK 21:10, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
lol, but why does the theoretical percentage have to be a multiple of 5? XD I mean, if you look at the way elemental defense stacks up (it's bizarre if you actually get to the percentages of hard numbers) and the rate of shock page drop and metallurgy drop rates and the tiny multipliers on most repair cost increases (in enchants) that mabi doesn't necessarily go by round numbers, especially when you go into the nitty gritty of it. The raw percentages of your cumulative tests actually are similar to the theoretical numbers I posted with just two of your trials plus Acknowitall's data. =\ Why couldn't Royal jelly have a 13% drop rate? -- ladywinter ~{talk | contribs}~ 21:42, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
You didn't use the standard deviation to account for probable error. It should be closer to 37% honey, 27% dead bee, 22% pollen, 14% Jelly. The results are still not completely accurate (the values are approximately 80% accurate). In order to get the results to near exactness you'd need to do open ~250 more. Tellos 22:23, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
Factoring in previous tests it appears to be 38% honey, 27% dead bee, 22% pollen, 13% jelly (accurate to within +-.6%) Tellos 22:31, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
You forget though, that percentage is actually a number derived from a set of data formed by the average occurance of something for every hundred tests. Although that (<-) could have been worded much better, the gist of it is that the percentage is something we get from testing for every hundred of something. Hence "Per Cent" (cent is the french word for hundred). Though I do agree with you when you say that we should have an even 1000 for better test results, keep in mind that I did take the percentage of the numbers relative to the 700 tests I've done.
To answer Lady up there, I just like whole numbers a lot more :) And the 0.86% Drop Rate of Shock Page 2 seems to be a manual test that someone's done, most probably doing the Shadow Mission 1000 times and only get 86 pages. If that was the case, then I would assume that the drop rate would actually be around 1% with the fluctuation of the Random Number Generator that devCAT uses, and we all know how well that works out *cough*Ferghus. But then again, it could be a non-whole number as a percentage. Heck, each individual Honeycomb might even have a set RNG of its own. We'll never know ;) --ZephyreTALK 22:41, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
The drop rate of shock and its location actually came from a Japanese Magazine that was advertising the new Sword of the Gods update. One of its articles talk about shock and it gave a nice chart on where it drop, difficulty, and the percentage. --Miyuna 23:19, 13 September 2010 (UTC)
Probability is the rate at which something occurs in the long run. Even if each comb had its own randomized RNG, if you take enough sets the data will normalize (that is to say it will begin to show a rate of occurance). The 5 multiple thing is just something that we as humans are comfortable with, most games program in probabilitys down to the first or second decimal. The prupose of a large number of trials is to minimize the chance that the probability rate is inacurate (much like it'd be innacurate to say that a coin toss will result in always head if a coin were tossed and landed on heads 3 times in a row). With 800~1000 trials we can easily find the average rate of obtaining certain outcomes for the honeycombs, ie the probability. The common arguement is based on the logical falacy "If something will occur 1 out of 3 times, then it will most certainaly occur after 3 attempts" when in actuality it'd have a 99% chance to have occured AT LEAST ONCE in all attempts (ie most certainlty occured) after 36 attempts. Also, a found percentage is said to be less accurate when the standard deviation between the sets is higher, and more accurate when it is lower. The numbers in the previous section are enforced by the numbers found in this section with the percents I listed as being MOST LIKELY accurate (that is to say that the chance that they are wrong is EXTREMELY low). Statistics are never 100% accurate, they just attempt to minimize any error. Also Zephyr, we would not assume it is "1%", in terms of statstics it'd be more like 2~.1% as that number of trials is insufficient to determine that small a percentage. Tellos 23:37, 13 September 2010 (UTC)

Contents

Thread titleRepliesLast modified
New Values (including Wax)318:33, 30 January 2022

New Values (including Wax)

Don't have an interest in mass-testing this (and if I was a smart noodle, I probably would have recorded stats from when I was doing the r6 Campfire quest, but oh well.

https://imgur.com/a/WCjG4m5

20 Honeycomb;

  • 2x Royal Jelly
  • 7x Fresh Honey
  • 2x Dead Bee
  • 1x Pollen
  • 8x Wax

Of the Wax rolls,

  • 3x 5
  • 1x 4
  • 2x 3
  • 1x 2
  • 1x 1

Dunno if the wiki has a 'info gathering' google worksheet anywhere? Might be valuable to just have people dump stats (along w/ screenshots for proof maybe) and have auto-sum, as opposed to trying to do this math via a bunch of comments.

Bronzebreak (talk)15:53, 5 November 2020

https://imgur.com/a/WKaSuls

19 Honeycomb;

  • 1 Royal Jelly
  • 5 Fresh Honey
  • 2 Pollen
  • 4 Dead Bee
  • 7 Wax
    • 0x 5
    • 1x 4
    • 2x 3
    • 2x 2
    • 2x 1
Bronzebreak (talk)04:22, 10 December 2020

I'll toss in mine but an image capture isn't gonna work cuz the log doesn't record 100 entries

100 Honeycomb:

  • 28 Royal Jelly
  • 12 Fresh Honey
  • 12 Pollen
  • 18 Dead Bee
  • Wax (30 Draws):
    • 5x: 6
    • 4x: 7
    • 3x: 4
    • 2x: 6
    • 1x: 7
Jllai (talk)01:57, 26 April 2021

I collected a large amount of pollen for Fynn Crafting, so I decided to log my results and compile the data for all openings since the update that added wax. Below are the results.

Contributor Date Fresh Honey Dead Bee Royal Jelly Pollen Wax x 1 Wax x 2 Wax x 3 Wax x 4 Wax x 5
Bronzebreak 05-Nov-2020 7 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3
Bronzebreak 10-Dec-2020 5 4 1 2 2 2 2 1 0
Jllai 26-Apr-2021 12 18 28 12 7 6 4 7 6
Hematin 11-Jun-2021 115 105 49 54 33 41 46 43 42
Hematin 19-Jun-2021 97 78 30 42 28 27 23 29 17
Hematin 20-Jun-2021 60 43 21 18 15 8 17 18 14
Hematin 30-Jun-2021 120 79 39 46 35 29 28 32 33
Hematin 04-Jul-2021 33 21 14 10 11 6 1 5 12
Hematin 29-Jan-2022 78 53 26 25 22 24 21 20 17
Hematin 30-Jan-2022 125 110 53 50 32 27 40 34 37
Sum 652 513 263 260 186 171 184 190 181
Sum (%) 25.1 19.7 10.1 10.0 7.2 6.6 7.1 7.3 7.0

With this data, assuming the developers round to 5% denominations as they tend to do with other content, I believe we can conclude that the rates are as follows:

If anyone else has a significant number of logged data, and is confident that it is free from statistical bias, feel free to reply to this comment and I will update it when I see it. For now, I will update the actual page with these assumed rates.

Hematin (talk)14:11, 4 July 2021