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'Great Success' Rates

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Over the course of training enchanting, I collected some data on how frequently I got regular successes versus great successes on Thursdays versus the rest of the week. Here are the results:

  • Not Thursday Great Successes: 16
  • Not Thursday Successful Enchants: 410
  • Thursday Great Successes: 4
  • Thursday Successful Enchants: 49

This places the 'Great Success' rate on non-Thursdays at 3.9 %, while on Thursdays it is 8.1 %, so my guess is that the true success rate is 4.0 % and that it's doubled on Thursday. Note that the vast majority (95 %+) of these came from Alby Dungeon. I'm told that Beginner Enchant Scroll Bundles can't get great successes, so a few of them were included in the data set before I knew if this was true.

Hematin (talk)09:01, 18 August 2018

Did you never fail them? I imagine that would factor in, too, but it's hard to know. If it's two rolls it wouldn't factor in but if it's only 1 then it would.

That is:

if (rng()% < success rate%) {
  if (rng() indicates greatness) {
    great success
  } else {
} else {
  failure/great failure logic

your data would cover this.


result = rng()%
if (result < great success rate) {
  great success
else if (result < success rate) {
else failure logic

then you need to record fails too.

In terms of how to tell which it is tho, I dunno, this is about the limit of my math skillz.

Kadalyn (talk)20:28, 21 August 2018

I only recorded instances where I was successful, so unfortunately I don't have any numbers for failures. Since they were almost all low level enchants from Alby, the success rate was capped at 90 % for nearly all of them, though.

Hematin (talk)01:34, 22 August 2018

It would either be the first case, or the second case with adjusted rates to match the first. This might be the same question about how music performances are decided.

That said Hematin, the samples are significantly imbalanced and by your own admission the data has impurities. You should do at least 100 on thursday with 100 on not thursday for a more appropriate (and statistically significant) comparison.

Shroom Fonzerelli (talk)13:10, 22 August 2018

The rates are specifically different, which is the problem & why we need to record failures. In both cases, the displayed success rate is accurate since a great success is still a success. Not sure what/how you want to adjust. I would expect it to work in the same way as music success, though, if we have the data to figure out which that one is.

Kadalyn (talk)20:58, 22 August 2018

I did not read the rng() calls as separate values. Did you mean he should record the failures so we can determine if there are fewer great failures? Otherwise i don't see how recording failures could possibly help determine the method of calculating success; we only have access to the result of calculation unless we dig real deep and determine how many rand() calls the game makes during enchanting.

Shroom Fonzerelli (talk)07:28, 24 August 2018

I don't know if it can be used to determine which version is used (that's the limit of my mathematical ability), but they're important in one of them, so they need to be recorded, anyway.

Kadalyn (talk)12:41, 26 August 2018